john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to cher madonna and beyonce, it is time to make way for hillary. ♪ mark:: on the show tonight ready for hillary. rubio is ready to go. and ready, aim, fire. first, the great clinton campaign announcement is coming on saturday or maybe sunday. definitely sometime this weekend. it'll be on twitter or maybe facebook. then she will go on to iowa or new hampshire or maybe it will be to mexico. john, it is finally happening.

my question to you is what could possibly go wrong? john: let me count the possible ways. this is -- her relationship with the press is not great. this game they have played of not doing this in a straightforward way has annoyed members of the press who are already inclined to be annoyed with her, but i do think there will be a story. as soon as she speaks, there will be where is the message where is the beat? there is nothing here. i think that is the likeliest bad narrative. mark: it is unfair that the press plays such a big role. i don't know why a campaign whose one of their top five priorities is to try to get their candidate better relations with the press is launching in a way that would annoy the press. the expectations are skyhigh. the media expect this to run like an incumbent campaign.

they will get back coverage for the bumps. john: why not announce it a week from now? because of all these things, it is going to be 200 reporters in des moines. she will be in a coffee shop and they are saying they will go low to the ground -- you cannot do that with 200 reporters. they will figure out a way to get a few in the room, but 200 -- that is abnormal. mark: if she delivers a great message, she can paper over these problems. coming this weekend. john: we will see. here are three things that hillary clinton does not what you seeing. trey gowdy, a blackberry commercial and our new bloomberg politics poll. we will have new results coming. the first four numbers are all bad for hillary clinton. bad number one -- her

favorability number is down to 48%, the first time it has been below 50% in any bloomberg poll since 2009. bad number two -- 72% of democrats and independents say they would like to see hillary face a stiff challenge in the nomination contest. bad number three -- just 42% of democrats say they would definitely vote for hillary if she is nominated. bad number four, about a quarter of democrats and independents say she was not completely truthful on the e-mail scandel. that is a quad-fecta of badness. which of the numbers is the nastiest? mark: i think it is the issue of people wanting competition because we are dealing with this extraordinary situation -- very accomplished woman. we have not seen a coronation of this before of a nonincumbent.

i think the fact that a lot of democrats would like to see the competition really big. if she performs great, if she reminds people wow, this is why we put it all -- all our tips on her to win, i think she will be ok but those numbers are bad. john: there are bad. the one i look at is favorability. horserace numbers do not mean that much this far out. favorability really matters. she, if you think about it, it is the first time she has been down below 50% in a poll since 2009. at a time she was at 65%, close to 70%. the most popular public figure in america, almost as popular as the pope. she is now down to 48%. i think the e-mail story has taken a toll on her. you are starting to see that across the board. this has happened. it has hurt her in a quantifiable way. mark: you look at her public appearances, the book tour, they have been paid speeches, the occasional thing like the

emily's list event that was not particularly good. and then the e-mail thing. this is probably the third time i said this -- she needs a strong performance and message and if she does, she can get her numbers up where she can win the primary. john: you and i have been working on our joint scouting report -- we have one of our categories as the best moment of the 2016 cycle. i know we are not finished with that, but what we both agreed on is we cannot come up with one. it has been -- she has been on this for over a year where there is not really a great moment for hillary clinton. this is the moment she's got to turn it around. mark: or have another grandchild. there are two things americans love most -- pizza and guns. there was national pizza association conference today but there was a big nra

convention in nashville. in the face of the nra, it was kicked off by preempting hillary clinton's expected announcement. >> from a coronation, you don't get the best from america or even the best from the democratic party. what you get instead is hillary rodham clinton. illegal gift-gate, monicagate, benghazi-gate, e-mail-gate white server-gate. she will not bring a dawn of new promise and opportunity. hillary rodham clinton will bring a permanent darkness of deceit and despair forced upon the american people to endure. mark: a lot of potential presidential candidates spoke after him today. we will listen to that later. headed into 2016, who is on the political offense? second-amendment stalwarts or people who support gun control? john: people on the side of gun rights.

you look at the polling -- after sandy hook and newtown, we all thought there will be a turning point. we thought the nra was weakening. none of those things are true. it is not like there is now a second amendment absolutist position that has become a 90% position. the majority of people are more for gun rights now than they were three years ago. it is clear in the data. mark: the democratic nominees for president since bill clinton have been people that are a little more aggressive on gun safety than him. one of the many questions about hillary clinton and how she will perform is what does she do about these issues because she will probably follow her husband's instincts which is less aggressive than even barack obama, al gore and john kerry in fighting back. you can see every major republican presidential candidate with one or two exceptions -- rand paul, chris

christie -- at this meeting and basically speaking about the importance of the second amendment. john: i think the key thing is it is true there has been that gun rights are on the march. it is a matter of salience for voters that care enough to vote about it. those people will vote republican anyway. those are not movable voters for her. this is not an issue that is going to -- upon which the election will hinge. mark: you look at the states that will decide the election -- virginia, colorado, ohio -- those are very big. john: all states that barack obama won. mark: the poll numbers have shifted to some extent. maybe not back where they were before, but they have changed. john: the nra convention today was like a conservative bonnaroo. i don't even know what that means. maybe like jumbo shrimp? we will have a lot more to say

about it when we come back. ♪

john: the nra convention in nashville is wrapping up. if you didn't have all afternoon to watch it, we did it for you. let's start with some hunting stories from scott walker. scott walker: i love to hunt whether it be with my rifle or shotgun or sometimes i use a good matthews bow. i love to hunt. sometimes i think it is about the heritage of our state that has really been from one generation to the next about hunting and trapping and fishing. really, it is more fundamental than that, it is deeper than that. it is about freedom. when we signed into law

concealed carry after the previous governor had vetoed it three times, it was about freedom. when we signed a law about something that has been talked about for years, it was about freedom because we wanted to give people in our state the right to stand up and protect themselves and their family and their loved ones and their property. it is about freedom and we need more about that in america. that is what is at risk in this country. not just from this president but from people like hillary clinton and others. it is not just the second amendment that is at risk. john: let's just frame this up. this event is a big catapult. a lot of what we're looking at is how do these guys connect with the base? scott walker has been on a roll this entire year. that rolled up sleeves thing, i

thought that was a pretty good performance. he is speaking their language. he is talking to the issue and framing it in terms of the liberty agenda. some of these guys are basically doing stump speeches or talking about stuff that did not have any integration of the gun message with the broader conservative theme. i thought scott walker did a good job. mark: he is probably the strongest of the people that spoke today in terms of audience reaction in terms of weaving the message. he is very comfortable giving that kind of speech to that audience. the fact is as we try to figure out where scott walker is going to play in this notion of is he going to play in the establishment bracket, the social conservative bracket -- he is going to play where the most votes are. he has great support amongst gun rights advocates. john: that is why he is dangerous to a guy like jeb bush. the wisconsin thing -- that seems credible. mark: as comfortable as scott walker was, today was another opportunity to see if jeb bush could figure out how to do q&a but to give a prepared speech. today, the results were at best mixed. jeb bush: it is the liberal, progressive worldview of barack

obama and hillary clinton and eric holder and all that other people who want to take the guns out of the hands of the good guys and the hands of the law-abiding citizens. the second amendment is one area where the obama administration has run into a wall. that wall is the kevlar-covered wall of the nra. florida was one of the first states to make the castle doctrine the law of the land. if somebody enters your home and you fear for your safety, you should not have to try to escape first. before the law was passed, juries were told we were supposed to run away from your home rather than defend yourself and your family. we fixed that. mark: another great speech and he touted his florida record and gave good buzzwords. i have to say he is making me think that bush 41 was a better public speaker than jeb bush. john: he put me to sleep. mark: that is an audience that

wants to be fired up. john: to go to this establishment populous thing we were talking about -- it looked like he was at the board room of procter & gamble or something. scott walker looked like one of the guys. jeb looked like a ceo. mark: finally, let's take a look at marco rubio at the nra today talking about liberty. senator rubio: all these dangers are real. all of them can be overcome. but, they cannot be overcome by a government restricting our law-abiding citizens than on restricting our enemies.. my dad working as a bartender in a hotel and my mother working as a maid and stock clerk at k-mart, they were able to achieve the american dream. will you and i become the generation to leave our children worse off than ourselves? that is the question that will define this generation and i have an answer in mind. in three days in miami, i will

announce whether i will run for president, for reelection to the senate or for commissioner of the national football league. [laughter] mark: i love that cute little smile. he was good. he was not as relaxed as walker, but he also did what walker did which was give a personal story speech with rhetoric that would appeal to the nra. john: he is a biography-driven candidate at this point. it is very compelling. his family story is at the core of his message. among his fans, even they are starting to say he needs a second act because that story is one that a lot of people in the party have already heard. mark: rubio and walker probably the two strongest today, but nobody dominated in the first day of speeches at the nra.

john: coming up, the 21st century's r.w. johnny apple. jonathan martin will be here when we come back. ♪

mark: our guest is the jennifer lopez of political journalism and by that i mean he does it all. jonathan martin of "the new york times." j-mart, thank you for coming back. rand paul announced this week, and if you believe the media, he has had a horrible week. what is your sense? is there a gap between what the elite press are saying about him fighting with journalism and what it is actually happening in iowa or new hampshire or south carolina? jonathan: in the short term, we get wrapped up in what he said to this reporter or that reporter. mostly voters do not care.

in the short term, does not hurt him. in the long term, it does because it gets at one of his core challenges which is he has ideological issues but also candidate performance issues. the fact is when you keep behaving like that on live television is going to create -- mark: it is insane to go into it knowing that this is your biggest weakness. none of what he did really helped him. he could not handle scrutiny. jonathan: that is one of the central challenges. he cannot apparently have discipline to basically go on tv, take tough questions and answer them in a civilized straightforward fashion. this is not a new issue for him. this goes back to his campaign in 2010 for the senate in kentucky. i know for a fact his people have talked to him about it. he knows he has an issue because -- for some reason, he cannot

seem to restrain himself. john: here is my question -- a lot of attention has been given to the extent of -- the libertarian rand paul which has become more conservative. there is this shooting in south carolina. he has made a huge banner issue out of criminal justice. when he is asked about it by wolf blitzer and other people, he backpedals like crazy this week. this is supposed to be one of your signature themes. in south carolina. one of the things that's supposed to make him a different republican. what is the strategic calculation behind that? walking away from the things that is supposed to make you different when different is supposed to be your brand. jonathan: i don't think there is a calculation. i think he is a talented political performer, but somebody that is playing on a different level right now. john: a lower level? the minor leagues? jonathan: it is going from

playing on a pretty good high school basketball team to playing in the final four in front of 80,000 fans. mark: it was very well done, right? jonathan: yes. mark: by the end of the week, do you think he is stronger in your view than before his announcement as potential nominee or does the totality of the week make you think he is weaker? jonathan: weaker. he had a good plan for his announcement in kentucky on monday. if you asked him or people -- what is your strategy in the interviews you are going to do starting with the "today" show tuesday morning going through the week -- i don't think they would have an answer. what was his goal after the announcement and it's not clear to me. mark: moving to rubio -- if you talked to people in the rubio camp and the clinton camp, you

hear different things about is this a coincidence that she is going to basically announce on a sunday and he will announce on monday? both camps are trying to spin this as not either, this was a plan or great for us. is it good for marco rubio to have the opportunity to juxtapose himself with hillary clinton or is it bad because he will be overshadowed? jonathan: it is not bad, but it is hard to see it as a great thing. would he have liked to have a ted cruz style three-day ride on the media like we had two weeks ago? yes. is he going to find a way to try to create a dynamic where he is this generational bookend on monday to her sunday announcement? yes. will it be effective? we will see. mark: how does he do it? jonathan: he makes changes to his speeches to talk about what she said on sunday. trying to use that as a frame about his campaign about why be a summary that reflects a 21st century approach to governence. john: one of your colleagues

wrote a piece about how the arc of rubio going from a protégé of jeb bush to now a potential rival. what do you think has made him think he is a plausible challenger in the establishment bracket against this guy -- jeb bush? what flipped the switch for rubio? jonathan: looking at jeb bush's polling numbers probably. jeb bush, among the donor class, is as strong as george w. bush this time in 1999. if you look at george w. bush's polling in 1999 and jeb bush's polling right now, it is a striking difference. i think rubio looks at that and says yes, jeb will take up a lot of the money, but are there actual voters for him and the answer so far very early is to be determined. if you are rubio, you will give it a shot.

he has until late next spring to run for re-election in the senate. he has options. for now, jeb looks not vulnerable, but he does not look invincible. mark: can rubio beat bush and walker or does he have to be the last man standing if they have problems? can he go after them and take them down? jonathan: i think it is possible, but he would need to help. mark: for you -- jonathan: you will have nine or 10 candidates at least on stage and they will be going after a common target. mark: i'm using the metaphor of roller derby. they're all going to try to hit bush. where is rubio vulnerable? if people decide he is a threat, where is his greatest vulnerability? jonathan: i think on substance it is the immigration issue. on style, it is the question about we have already tried

barack obama once, we will not try it again. basically, painting him as a republican answer to barack obama. young, non-white, a really good speaker, someone who is talking about generational change but did not have the kind of governing experience to back it up. the rubio folks will argue a different scenario -- he was the speaker of the florida house has done more policy innovations than obama. mark: it has been announced that rubio will do an interview after his event on monday. guess who he is doing it with? jonathan: mark halperin and john heilemann. mark: guess again. jonathan: sean hannity. mark: correct. nicely done, jonathan martin. thank you. we will be right back. ♪

john: we are only on the tube a half hour a day. we are live 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com where we have the beginning of our poll story roll-out. mark: up next, "taking stock"

and on radio, it's "bloomberg law." sayonara. ♪

pimm: hello. i am pimm fox. u.s. stocks rallied today. the s&p 500 closed within 1% of its record, and the markets moved higher. it was helped by g.e.'s 10% jump coming after the company announced a $50 billion share buyback program. shares of netflix gained more than 3% in late trading after asking investors to approve a huge increase in the number of shares, a possible prelude to a stock split. former secretary of state and former new york senator hillary clinton is expected to officially launch her 2016 presidential bid on sunday. did a people familiar with her team confirmed clinton will make